دانلود مقاله isi پديده شناسى بهار در درختان منطقه معتدل به گرم شدن آب و هوا
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توضیحات :
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مشخصات این مقاله :
عنوان مقاله :
Responses of spring phenology in temperate zone trees to climatewarming: A case study of apricot flowering in China
ترجمه فارسی عنوان :
پاسخ های پديده شناسى بهار در درختان منطقه معتدل به گرم شدن آب و هوا: مطالعه موردی گلدهی زردآلو در چین
سال انتشار : 2015
متعلق به مجله یا ژورنال : هواشناسی کشاورزی و جنگل (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)
فرمت: PDF
تعداد صفحات: 7
شماره پروژه: 5008
کلمات کلیدی :
Climate warming, Flowering, Partial Least Squares regression, Prunus armeniaca L., Spring phenology, Temperate zone plantsa
گرم شدن آب و هوا، گلدهی، رگرسیون مربع حداقل جزئی، زردآلو، پديده شناسى بهار، گیاهان منطقه معتدل
چکیده :
Abstract
The timing of spring phenology in most temperate zone plants results from the combined effects of bothautumn/winter cold and spring heat. Temperature increases in spring can advance spring phases, butwarming in autumn and winter may slow the fulfilment of chilling requirements and lead to later onsetof spring events, as evidenced by recent phenology delays in response to warming at some locations.As warming continues, the phenology-delaying impacts of higher autumn/winter temperatures mayincrease in importance, and could eventually attenuate – or even reverse – the phenology-advancingeffect of warming springs that has dominated plant responses to climate change so far. To test thishypothesis, we evaluated the temperature responses of apricot bloom at five climatically contrasting sitesin China. Long-term records of first flowering dates were related to temperature data at daily resolution,and chilling and forcing periods were identified by Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression of bloom datesagainst daily chill and heat accumulation rates. We then analyzed the impacts of temperature variationduring the chilling and forcing periods on tree flowering dates for each site. Results indicated that incold climates, spring timing of apricots is almost entirely determined by forcing conditions, with warmersprings leading to earlier bloom. However, for apricots at warmer locations, chilling temperatures werethe main driver of bloom timing, implying that further warming in winter might cause delayed springphases. As global warming progresses, current trends of advancing phenology might slow or even turninto delays for increasing numbers of temperate species.
مقدمه این مقاله :
Introduction
Variation in the phenology of plants and animals is one of themost sensitive ecological responses to climate change (Menzelet al., 2006; Stenseth et al., 2002; Walther et al., 2002). Changesto species’ phenology can have a wide range of impacts on ecologi-cal processes, agriculture, forestry, food supply, human health, andthe global economy (Pe˜nuelas and Filella, 2001). Temperature is themajor driver of such changes, as confirmed by numerous experi-mental studies (Menzel and Fabian, 1999; Price and Waser, 1998;Wolkovich et al., 2012) and literature reviews (Chuine and Cour,1999; Murray et al., 1989; Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Pe˜nuelasand Filella, 2001; Root et al., 2003; Walther et al., 2002). Moststudies that evaluated species responses to global warming haveshown progressive advances in spring phenology (Chmielewskiand Rötzer, 2001; Chmielewski et al., 2011, 2004; Fitter and Fitter,2002; Grab and Craparo, 2011; Legave and Clauzel, 2006; Menzelet al., 2006; Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Parmesan, 2007; Rootet al., 2003; Wolfe et al., 2005). However, some physiological andgenetic mechanisms of plants in temperate climates may hinderfurther advances in spring events (Luedeling et al., 2013b). In fact,delayed spring phenology has been reported in recent years forsome species and ecosystems, in spite of clear warming trends. Forexample, Cook et al. (2012) analyzed plant phenological datasetsthroughout the temperate regions and found that some speciesexhibited delayed bloom in spring. Trends toward later bloom werealso observed for pistachio in Tunisia and apple in Mediterraneanregions (Elloumi et al., 2013; Legave et al., 2013).
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